The 2025 midterm elections have delivered one of the most politically diverse Senates in recent history: a mixed bag of opposition comebacks, independents, legacy names, and Duterte-aligned loyalists. As the dust settles, one thing is clear: President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (PBBM) will have to navigate a fragmented chamber in the final three years of his term. And for Vice President Sara Duterte, the outcome is even more precarious, with impeachment clouds forming and support unsure.
A Senate That Will Not March in Step
Of the 24 members of the incoming 20th Congress, a solid bloc of at least 8 to 10 senators are either known critics of the administration or are politically independent enough to vote against its interests.
The surprise return of Senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, along with Senator Risa Hontiveros, signals a rejuvenated opposition that will no longer be content to merely make privilege speeches. Their unexpected victories, despite dismal pre-election survey rankings, show that grassroots organizing and disillusionment with status-quo politics still carry weight.
Also reentering the chamber are Senators Ping Lacson and Tito Sotto, each with varying degrees of independence but not necessarily beholden to Malacañang. Even nominal administration allies such as Senators Joel Villanueva and Loren Legarda have shown unpredictability and independence in past critical votes.
It is important to mention that Senators Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, Mark Villar, Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, and the Cayetano siblings remain in place, and they are mostly aligned with the Dutertes. Truthfully, many of them owe their mandates to the former president’s base and remain loyal to the Duterte brand, not necessarily the Marcos agenda.
As Vice President Sara Duterte faces growing calls for investigation and potential impeachment over her controversial use of confidential funds, she, however, cannot assume automatic loyalty from these senators nor can PBBM rely on them to block an impeachment move if it becomes a proxy war between him and the Dutertes. Both parties need to work the ground and check on loyalties, perhaps offer some carrots, to toe their respective lines.
No Clear Majority, No Rubber Stamp
Indeed, the Marcos administration will have to negotiate harder for its legislative priorities. The Senate now includes a critical mass of senators who are either ideologically opposed to political overreach or simply angling for higher posts in 2028.
Without a clear supermajority, the days of fast-tracking pet bills or shielding allies from scrutiny may be over. Instead, we may see a return to the Senate’s traditional role as a deliberative, sometimes appearing obstructive, but ultimately independent body.
The Impeachment Wildcard
For Sara Duterte, this Senate makeup may be sobering. While the House of Representatives remains dominated by allies of President Marcos, any impeachment case remains tethered in the Senate, where conviction requires a two-thirds vote.
The presence of Aquino, Pangilinan, Hontiveros, and a few unpredictable independents makes conviction plausible, especially if the tide of public opinion turns against her. More importantly, the political will to protect her may erode quickly if she is perceived as a liability rather than an asset to the broader conservative coalition.
What This Means for 2028
The realignment inside the Senate is a reflection of the broader fragmentation of Philippine politics post-Duterte. No single family, brand, or coalition holds absolute sway anymore. The electorate has shown its willingness to surprise, to reject scripted narratives, and to sideline even dynastic strongholds.
For Marcos, the message is clear: the next three years must be marked by results, not rhetoric. For Duterte, the path to 2028 just got murkier and perhaps a little bit lonelier.
And for the Senate? Perhaps, just perhaps, a return to relevance.
